WASHINGTON -- The Democrats are likely to lose 47 seats and control of the House of Representatives in November's elections, a top political analyst says in a new forecast Thursday.
Larry Sabato, a political scientist at the University of Virginia, also says that the Democrats are likely to lose eight or nine seats in the Senate, eight governors' offices and 300 to 500 seats in state legislatures.
"The numbers are eye-catching. Republicans are dramatically gaining in all categories," Sabato said in an interview. "It's generated by a rotten economy and a strong conservative reaction against President Obama."
The analysis marks the first time this year that Sabato and the University's Center for Politics have predicted a Republican takeover of the House.
Sabato is one of the most consistently accurate election prognosticators. His final pre-election analysis in 2006 got the exact number of Democratic gains in the House and Senate and was off by only one in governors' races. In 2008, he missed the final Electoral College count by only one, and missed the final House tally by only five seats.
"2010 was always going to be a Republican year, in the midterm tradition. It has simply been a matter of degree," Sabato said in a written analysis released Thursday.
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