the doctor shortage

In the July 28 New York Times article “Doctor Shortage Likely to Worsen With Health Law” by Annie Lowrey and Robert Pear, the Association of American Medical Colleges reports that in 2015 the country will fall short by 62,900 doctors, “and that number will more than double by 2025, as the expansion of insurance coverage and the aging of baby boomers drive up demand for care.”

In five years the island of Hawaii will lose 32 percent of its current physicians, according to a survey published in the April Hawaii Journal of Medicine and Public Health. Its deciding issues are “financial sustainability, professional opportunities, community support and access to good K-12 schools,” according to a report by Karen L. Pellegrin, director of continuing/distance education and strategic planning at the University of Hawaii at Hilo College of Pharmacy.

In my opinion, this doctor crisis is a crime against the Hawaii people. Decisions that have been made by our Legislature for years are the cause. The state’s wasteful spending projects, an unfriendly business climate, the egregious General Excise Tax on goods and services, other high taxes and fees, a top-heavy school system and special interest “bargains” to buy union loyalties are directly related to our sky-high cost of living, low-rated schools and why we can’t retain doctors or attract businesses.

We now see how these reckless, self-serving practices by lawmakers directly connect to the very most fundamental measure of any successful community: a healthy population.

-- Susan Page, MidWeek September 26, 2012

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It’s well-known in the health-care world that we have a looming doctor shortage, with a growing gap between the medical services we need and the doctors who can provide them.

This often gets chalked up to the Affordable Care Act: Expanding insurance, the thinking goes, will hugely increase demand for doctors’ services. It’s an issue I’ve written about, as have others.

New research in the Annals of Family Medicine throws some cold water on that theory: Researchers there suggest that it’s population growth and aging largely driving the demand for doctors, with the Affordable Care Act playing a more minor role.