government shutdown?

[9/23/13]  Thousands of workers and the American economy stand to lose if the government shuts down next week, but some political leaders might see their hands improved by such a crisis.

Nearly every economist warns of negative repercussions for the U.S. economy should Congress fail to forge an agreement to fund the government’s day-to-day operations past Sept. 30.  But a handful of Republicans – and even President Barack Obama – are among the select few Americans who have something to gain should negotiations fail and a shutdown come to pass.

The fact that it’s in the political best interests of some people (or groups) to force a government shutdown has actually contributed to the fiscal impasse, which shows no sign of resolution with little more than a week to go until all but the most essential government functions cease.

President Obama
A year removed from his re-election, Obama isn’t the most popular second-term president ever, and his signature health care overhaul law still engenders deep skepticism from the American public.

But if Obama has at least one thing going for him heading into his battle against Republicans, it’s that poll after poll has shown that Americans don’t think that eliminating “Obamacare” is worth the cost of a government shutdown.

Republicans complain that it’s been Obama – not them – who is being inflexible in fiscal talks. But if the numbers are to be believed, a shutdown could reinvigorate Obama politically, and thereby likely decrease his willingness to cut a deal that is more favorable to Republicans. It could also strengthen his hand heading into next month’s fight over raising the nation’s debt ceiling.

Texas Sen. Ted Cruz
Perhaps no figure in Washington has hitched his political fortunes to the fate of this fall’s spending battles more than the hard-charging, first-term senator from Texas.

Though other high-profile conservatives have joined Cruz in vowing not to fund the government unless spending for “Obamacare” was eradicated, Cruz has emerged as the effort’s figurehead. He did this by traveling the country throughout the August recess, turning up the heat – not on rival Democrats, but on fellow Republicans to make good on their campaign promises to fight health care reform.

If the government reaches a shutdown, it will no doubt be because Cruz managed to convince enough fellow Republicans to stand pat on the issue of Obamacare. Though this scenario would likely have wide-ranging (and largely negative) implications for the broader Republican Party, a shutdown would serve as a validation of Cruz’s influence in Congress after only nine months on the job.

The Tea Party
If the rise of Obamacare was the catalyzing moment for the Tea Party, then a shutdown could give insurgent conservatives an upper hand in their protracted struggle against the GOP establishment for control of the Republican Party.

“Win, lose or draw, the Tea Party and the conservatives have routed the establishment wing of the party,” said Shirley, pointing to House Republican leaders’ decision to pursue legislation that defunds Obamacare after having shelved a more modest proposal.

Conservative groups like the Club for Growth and Heritage Action – while not strictly Tea Party groups, per se – will have demonstrated a commanding degree of influence over the modern Republican Party if they manage to hold enough GOP lawmakers together to prevent party leaders from reaching an agreement to avoid a shutdown.

That situation might send House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, on a hunt to find Democratic votes to help win approval for any eventual compromise. But that might further undermine Boehner’s already-shaky grip on the speaker’s gavel, prompting a possible challenge to his reign by conservatives in his conference who more closely align with the Tea Party.

And if the Tea Party gains, so might Democrats, too.

Hillary Clinton?
The 2016 election is years away, and any number of variables could shape the trajectory of American politics before then. But as the early favorite for the next Democratic presidential nomination, Clinton could benefit from any damage done to the Republican brand by a government shutdown.

For starters, since Clinton is out of office following a four-year stint as secretary of State, she won’t have to carry the baggage of the ugly negotiations between Congress and the administration over government funding and the debt ceiling.

But if Republicans end up forcing a shutdown, it could do collateral damage to the GOP brand such that it hurts the party’s chances of retaking the White House come 2016.

*** [9/24/13]

Cruz vows to speak until he is no longer able to stand

As his speech neared its sixth hour, Cruz took an odd turn by reading his young daughters a bedtime story via the Senate floor cameras. Cruz said his book of choice, Dr. Seuss' "Green Eggs and Ham," was a favorite of his as a child.

***

Sen. Marco Rubio is among the big names in the Republican Party salivating at the chance to defund Obamacare.

But Florida’s Republican senator says there’s no need to shut down the federal government over it, and conveniently enough, he says the American public agrees with him on both fronts.

After the U.S. House of Representatives passed a short-term continuing resolution to defund Obamacare and keep the federal government open, Rubio issued a press release on Sept. 20, 2013:

"The American people support defunding Obamacare and oppose shutting down the government. The House voted today to follow the will of the American people and the Senate should now follow suit."

We decided to examine recent poll results to determine if Rubio correctly characterized the public’s view on Obamacare and a government shutdown.

*** [9/25/13]

A solid majority of Americans opposes defunding the new health care law if it means shutting down the government and defaulting on debt.

The CNBC All-America Economic Survey of 800 people across the country conducted by Hart-McInturff, finds that, in general, Americans oppose defunding Obamacare by a plurality of 44 percent to 38 percent.

Opposition to defunding increases sharply when the issue of shutting down the government and defaulting is included. In that case, Americans oppose defunding 59 percent to 19 percent, with 18 percent of respondents unsure. The final 4 percent is a group of people who want to defund Obamacare, but become unsure when asked if they still hold that view if it means shutting down the government.

The Republican-party-led House voted 230-189 on Friday to adopt a short-term government spending bill that would eliminate all funding for the new health care law. The measure could lead to a government shutdown in less than two weeks. The poll, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percent, was conducted Monday through Thursday of last week. Full results will be released this Thursday.

(Read more: Anxieties mount over Obamacare)

In general, men are roughly split on the issue, with 43 percent supporting defunding, 42 percent opposing and 15 percent unsure. But when the issue of a government shutdown and default is included their support declines: 56 percent oppose defunding and only 14 percent solidly favor the measure.

Women are more firmly opposed to defunding the new health care law under any circumstances, with 47 percent opposed, 33 percent in favor and 20 percent unsure.

(Read more:You're going to be paying more for this next year)

A 51 percent majority of Republicans generally support defunding with 36 percent opposed and 13 percent unsure. However, when including the issue of a government shutdown and default, the picture changes: 48 percent of Republicans oppose defunding Obamacare, while 36 percent support it.

However, a 54 percent majority of Republicans who also identify themselves as Tea Party supporters want the new health care law defunded even if it means a government shutdown – the only demographic measured in the poll with such a majority.

Republicans who do not identify themselves as Tea Party supporters hold views closer to those of Democrats than to Republicans that do identify themselves as Tea Party supporters: They oppose defunding Obamacare 44 percent to 36 percent with 20 percent unsure.

(Read more: Obamacare's biggest test: How many enroll?)
Independents are more troubled by the prospect of defunding Obamacare and shutting down the government than the broader population. In general, they oppose defunding by a slight plurality of 44 percent to 40 percent. However, when the issue of shutting down the government is included, opposition to the measure swells to 65 percent, while support drops to just 14 percent.

*** [9/25/13]  What a government shutdown would mean.

*** [9/27/13] WASHINGTON—House Republican leaders struggled Friday to come to terms with conservative lawmakers who want to halt the new federal health-care law, leaving unclear how an increasingly dysfunctional Congress might be able to pass a spending bill by Monday night to avert a fiscal crisis.

The Democratic-led Senate approved legislation Friday to fund federal agencies for the first six weeks of the fiscal year and to restore money for the health law. The GOP-led House last week passed a bill to avert a shutdown that also defunded the law, as demanded by the chamber's conservatives.

The next move belongs to House Speaker John Boehner (R., Ohio), who has said the House will not pass the Senate bill but hasn't yet laid out how he plans to amend it.

House leaders face a difficult situation. Mr. Boehner doesn't want to alienate the dozens of lawmakers who won't back any spending plan that doesn't in some way limit the reach of the health law.

At the same time, Senate Democrats say they will reject any measure that alters the health law.

Underscoring the dilemma, a group of 62 conservative GOP lawmakers emerged with their own demand late Friday: delay the health-care law for one year as part of the spending bill. The proposal is sure to be discussed during a rare Saturday meeting of House GOP lawmakers called by Mr. Boehner to figure out a way forward.

The standoff both between the two major parties and within the GOP brings the federal government to the brink of a shutdown with little obvious room for resolution. Unlike in previous showdowns, there have been no major negotiations among congressional leaders or with the White House, which is taking an increasingly combative tone.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D., Nev.) on Friday added to the pressure on the House by adjourning the Senate until Monday afternoon, narrowing the window of time for any last-minute legislative volleys between the chambers.

Rep. Matt Salmon (R., Ariz.) said that delaying the health law for a year made sense, given that major elements of the law have been delayed, such as a provision imposing penalties on large employers who fail to provide insurance for their workers.

"We think that's fair and reasonable. Close to half of Obamacare has already been delayed," Mr. Salmon said.

Mr. Salmon also said that House lawmakers had met with tea party-aligned Sens. Ted Cruz of Texas and Mike Lee of Utah, both Republicans, on Thursday night to discuss the House's next steps, and agreed to hold out for a one-year delay of the health law. Some 15 House conservatives met with the two senators at a townhouse on Capitol Hill, according to a Republican lawmaker.


The strategy keeps House Republicans on a collision course with Senate Democrats. "We are going to accept nothing as it relates to Obamacare,'' Mr. Reid said after the Senate approved its spending plan.